Technology

Welcome to being a luddite.

It's not actually about hating the progression of technology, it's realizing that your labor has been leveraged against you. You will not bear any of the true fruits, because your bosses will use the fruits of your labor to purchase the AI to replace you.

It's because the labor market is fucked and developers needed unions 20 years ago instead of thinking because they were "rockstars" and "made the big bucks" that they didn't need anybody else.

We wouldn't have to ask these kind of questions if the fruits of our labor were being equitably distributed.

Basically in the scenario described, this is what's happening to developers:

The plan is to rehire them back temporarily to babysit the AI and fix all the AI generated crap. Then realize it was cheaper to actually just have the devs make code. Then hire them back at a reduced rate on a more permanent basis with the understanding that they believe the code will still be partially generated by AI and cleaned up by the same people and they aren't paying top tier for third hand AI slop.

Ai-herder or Robot-farmer or Llama-raiser etc etc

devs still needed to ensure code is sane and not some insane hallucination.

As a dev, there's still quite a bit ai can't do and will most likely not be able to do.

AI is good at solving old problems but it's not trained on anything new. Its good at boilerplate and templates, but not good at original material. If it gets tremendously better, and really does get to the point where it's better than we are at development, then the industry will shift into prompt engineering. But I can see a huge reduction of jobs.

Then I'll train my own model to make others lose their jobs, too. I bet an AI will then be able to do all calculations a civil engineer can do. Or manage any project.

Riot.

Honestly people are getting distracted here. Now lets say A.I makes developers 50% more productive thats a huge boost for smaller companies with only handful of developers.

Many companies are only thinking about reducing costs for themselves but at the same time they're freeing up a lot of talent for new and old competitors.

Here's some food for thought:

• Open source developers may use A.I to develop better software to close gap between paid alternatives. (Blender, Gimp, Krita, Linux distributions, mastodon, lemmy, pixelfed)
• Many LLM's can already be ran freely and locally. These will only get better as technology progresses. This can make selling/profiting from A.I services a lot harder
• A.I may be used to block ads or obfuscate (create bunch of fake data) user data that is sold to advertisers.
• Some media sites are already using A.I to write articles. Whats the point when users may just use chatbot to get all the information without ever engaging with the source.

These are just few that come to mind. but the unkowns with this are quite terrifying.

They'll either move up the food chain to higher-touch work where AI can't compete, or they'll do other things.

Keep in mind that most devs aren't really all that good at their jobs, so it will probably be economically beneficial for them to do something else. I say this as a long-time hiring manager with many decades of experience in the field.

It can program in 15 different languages, 95% accuracy with almost no mistakes, can create entire applications in minutes

Only if you believe the hype. It can do that in best-case scenarios when the requirements are written as rigorously as code, or where it's replicating a common pattern.

Do they just become homeless?

During previous layoffs, a lot of them left the field, and some of the rest founded startups. It wasn't always the case that firms were founded by teenaged sociopaths with strong family connections to VC funding. There was a time when they were founded by people who knew how to do things.

That's something that we're probably going to have to figure out quickly. We won't though given the lack of accountability of those in power.

If SWEs are losing their jobs you can imagine a lot of other white collar workers will be as well. This would mean you will be competing with many other people in other fields. The large number of unemployed will reduce demand for goods produced by those companies that are also laying off workers due to automation.

This is a bit of a tragedy of the commons where companies adopt the technology to increase profits but actually disrupt the economy, potentially leading to their own collapse.

It's impossible to really prepare for this scenario because it requires you to simultaneously be ready for retirement in the next few years but also riots. I'm just hoping for the best for now.

Well before that level of complexity is achieved, the jobs of CEOs and Managers will be gone. Question is, will the Ai CEO really want to risk the safety of a review, knowing that it IS the company. Pump and Dump won't do it any more. Then CEOs need to actually work for their money. (Or well... get replaced by an Ai)

This thread is full of people comparing OPs hypothetical about 10 years from now with last year's capability.

Will AI progress that fast? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It probably won't get that good, but it doesn't matter. If it gets as good as your average junior that's going to mean something like 100% increase in productivity, which means 50% as many jobs and that's going to be a BIG FUCKING DEAL.

Especially when it's going to be replacing a lot of other types of office workers. What kind of job is your average software dev going to transition to? Tech support? Not anymore. UI Designer? LOL. Manager? And who are you going to be managing?

If the US doesn't hit 15-20% unemployment in the next 10 years I'll eat my hat. I'll be eating it either way because I'll be starving to death.

Once AI can develop code it can be used to improve itself in a feedback loop that would take short time to reach skynet.

We'd be the last of our species once it would want more resources than we'd be able to give it