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this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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Demographic collapses don't happen overnight, they take decades to unfold. Demographers were able to predict China's demographic collapse since they started seeing the demographic shifts that happened due to the implantation of the one child policy back in 1979. That's why you've been hearing about it for so long and why you'll continue to hear about it for years to come. As time marches on, those demographic collapse went from being predictions to becoming reality, and as time continues to pass, the current trends will continue to get worse and worse. The damage these demographic trends will inflect on the system will incrementally increase year by year until the system can't support itself any longer.
The thing is that they can't reverse the demographic situation. Even if China started forcing people to have kids or opened their borders to allow for millions of immigrants, it won't mean anything. It's already too late, the demographic collapse is going to happen no matter what the CCP does. Keep in mind, Japan is in the same position and they will face the same fate regardless. The only difference is that Japan is a wealthy country with a highly developed economy, so it can at least slow down the inevitable and buy itself some time. China unfortunately doesn't have this luxury.
For the record, I don't want China to collapse like this because the effects are going to be devastating. However, the numbers don't lie and every metric is showing us that they are heading towards a collapse at full speed. The CCP can't handle this, no government can in their position. There's really nothing like what China is going through in history. The scale and speed at which this collapse is happening is unprecedented. It'll most likely go down as the most defining event of the 21st century.