The pattern I see here, I think, relates to how much advanced warning the Jews of a country got

If you're a German Jew in 1933, you're under a government that openly exists to destroy you, and still have years to GTFO before it's cattle car time. Similarly, in the USSR they didn't show up until shit was pretty real, so you can maybe prepare somehow or head East (depending on how Stalin feels about it). Meanwhile, Central Europe and the Netherlands went down relatively suddenly.

Maybe you'd hope Jews in 1937 Austria or Czechoslovakia would see the writing on the wall, but in practice normalcy bias is strong, then just as now.