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Brexit’s Lasting Damage Is Looking Inescapable
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2024
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Thank you for providing sources.
I'm still not clear how your data supports "having issues pre-2020, your data only shows a 2008 dip, which we've explained as a one-off event that UK recovered from before the dip 2020. There's no Brexit dip, which seems suspect, but I'm unwilling to trawl through raw data sources and so will cede that maybe it didn't dip in 2014.
Then we still have the 2019-2020 dip, which coincides with Covid and Hard Brexit. Covid effects aren't expected until 2020, whereas Brexit ones would be felt 2019. Even if we disagree about why, I see no no indication at all in your data, that there were problems pre-2020, no significant dip in neither GDP nor productivity. So where does your conclusion come from?
If you extrapolate out a trend line from pre-2008 to now on the GDP graph you'll see that the position where we would have been prior to the financial crash is higher than our current position. The same is true on the productivity chart, albeit a lot closer. My point it that we were already in a bad point prior to Brexit.
See, for example, ONS graphs for unemployment: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms
Or adjusted pay: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kac3/lms
That's all I'm saying. The issue with with placing that blame exclusively at the feet of Brexit a) ignores the inherent difficulty in separating the economic affects of Covid and Brexit and b) shifts blame from decades of economic and political missteps by our government and onto an convenient scapegoat. The whole things a mess, but Brexit cannot be viewed in isolation.
If your extrapolate a line during the run up to ANY recession you'll create a line that never gets hit again. Your extrapolation theory reminds me of this
It's not just a 'run up to a recession' it's over 12 years of continuous growth arrested in 2008. I'd argue that's more than enough data points to extrapolate a trend line. Don't take my word for it, though. Here's an example of the ONS doing the same thing: https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc496/Recession/chart5/index.html
Oh my god, it's even worse when you zoom out. We'll never catch up to the trend lines set by the years of unsustainable growth before the recessions in the 70's. Oh the permanent damage we caused. It's an absolute tragedy that after a recession we never get back to the trend line that was set by the bubble before it burst. I'm not patient enough for the slow and steady fundamental growth of humanity through time, I want continuous fast exponential growth so the shareholders can he happy all the time!
This isn't about shareholders, this is about demonstrating the economic performance of the UK in the lead up to Brexit as it pertains to our current situation. In your previous comment you seemed to be implying that you can't extrapolate a trend line prior to a recession and I demonstrated that you could because the lead up was measured in years. I'm not arguing that damage from a recession is permanent, I'm arguing that it put us in an already bad place in terms of productivity etc prior to 2020.