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this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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It doesn't seem at all plausible to me that meta threads will pull users away from mastodon/pleroma/misskey/etc. though. If they "extend" the federation protocol to the point they become incompatible with the rest of these implementations, they will just go away and we're back to where we were before they started federating.
They don’t pull users away from the competition, they grow their own user base much faster than the competition, the result being that most of the popular content is on their platform. If you want to follow that celebrity/ influencer / news organization/ sports reporter/ politician, you need to join threads.
But that's already true for Twitter.
And if people weren't looking for a reason to leave Twitter, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The point is that this is how decentralized / open standards have been broken and made proprietary in the past.
If you think the aforementioned celebrities/influencers/news orgs/etc. are going to choose the fediverse instead of Threads or (I think more likely) BlueSky, that might make sense. I don't see that happening though. What might instead happen is something like this:
Potential fediverse user: "I heard that Facebook's new twitter competitor can work with these existing sites. So I can make an account on one of those and follow Celebrity X and Politician Y without making a Meta account."
Potential fediverse admin: "Well yeah, but you can't follow them from my instance. Or any of these other instances. You see, back in the 90s there was this concept called embrace, extend extinguish..."
No longer a potential fediverse user: "Oh, I guess I'll just make a Meta/Bluesky account instead then."
Dosen't need to actively "stole" users from the other communities, but if new users have to choose between the independent supported and development instances and the corporate supported with marketing and flashy UI they are going to choose the corporate one. Eventually the great majority of users are under meta's control and the content is generated there, and you better start complying or get defederated by meta.
Some users will be used to their content by then and may be tempted to move to their platform.
There's also the tons of news users interested in the Fediverse who get sucked into the marketing of "big tech + Fediverse" and basically just getting slurped up into some inevitable twitter sequel. So it's existing users and potential new users.
Exactly it’s like selling junk food marketed as health food, you can say it doesn’t stop anyone from eating healthy food but if the junk food is marketed as healthy food (looking at you sugary cereals) than it can steal positive energy from the healthy food movement, gain a false sense of healthiness via associating itself with legitimately healthy food, and distract or disillusion vast swathes of people from actually trying healthy food in the first place.
Techbros being like “we should let tech companies try again (?!?) to make a non-toxic thing out of our idea” is just another case of relatively smart people being dumb af about their privilege because let’s face it, a lot of this is just resume building or a DIY hobby for these folks. They don’t have the same things to lose that trans, black, queer or any other harassed/targeted minority has in coming here. They don’t have a horse in the game whether legitimate communities win or awful corporations do, they still win in the end because both use social media software though the latter pays much better….