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China is merging hundreds of small banks to fend off financial stress
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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more evergrande fallout or something else?
Evergrande was not a triggering event, it was an inevitable consequence. The CCP's fiscal policy has driven "growth at all costs" for over 40 years now and they are running out of free runway. Their "private" sector (a bit of a misnomer considering how government-driven basically every company is over there) acquiesced to these government demands for growth, especially in real estate, long after traditional market fundamentals were saying to slow down, and now those "private" companies are saddled with investments without any way to make money off them post-pandemic. And their markets have realized that before the party did.
The party is only just now waking up to the fact that they can't keep hitting GDP growth targets by pumping stimulus into their businesses and that their economy needs to begin maturing into a more stable form. We will not see a real "collapse" like some doomsday fans love to parrot, but there is a very large correction about to happen to their economic projections, in both GDP and demographics.
It could mirror the economic stagnation of Japan that begun in the 1990s. Very similar set of circumstances.
This stagnation had a devastating effect on Japan's standing in the world. If it ends up doing the same damage to China, then there is no chance for the country to become a superpower.