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this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2023
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You don't need to guess. It was less than 3 months ago where scientists (on nearly every news/publication outlet that wasn't denying climate change) said we are going to blow by the 1.5C estimate we used as a threshold in our models.
Climate change is already happening exponentially now.
Yeah just 20 years ago, much of the world was a bunch of primitive people living in jungles, and the planet could balance the relatively small number of industrialized nations. Today, way more countries have been industrialized. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, etc are now concrete cities with massive highways and bridges, motorized vehicles everywhere, and factories manufacturing all kinds of stuff and pumping huge clouds of crap into the air. The EU and US try to pass laws and regulations to lower pollution output, but the factories just move to these other countries that have no or less regulations. We aren't at steadily increasing pollution levels, it's exponentially increasing.
The last 20 years saw increased in emissions, but not the the way you claim. see this chart 1990 22 billion t CO2 2003 27.7 billion t CO2 2023 35? 36? Billion t CO2
Even more importantly you can check how the shares of emissions change: Here on this page. 20 years ago the regional emission shares were essentially the same. 30 years ago too. Pretty much only China got really bigger, EU and USA are fairly constant in that time, even tho they moved things like steel production to China.
If I recall they said in that report that we've managed to avoid +4C with our efforts so far, which prevents extinction. But, we've also learned that even modest increases are way more severe than we first thought.
It's a hell of a mixed bag :/