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this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2023
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Honestly, it could be a real power move for some blue state republicans to flip parties. If they could pull a Reagan and say that the Republican Party has changed but they haven’t, they could take both the democratic voters and centrist republicans while losing the MAGAs, and still carry their district.
That would be something for the history books.
I doubt they would be trusted at this point. Too many burnt bridges in the MAGA lifetime. They are on life support.
They don't even have to flip outright to Democrats, they could simply announce they are now Independent. They are probably getting a Primary challenger regardless, and maybe Democrats pay back the favor by forgetting to run a candidate in that district.
What share of Republican voters are flexible enough to decide to vote for the Democrats just so they don't support the Trump/MAGA movement? Because these people would need need to decide to vote Republican come next election and US electors seem to be very entrenched in their support for one party or the other, no matter what...
There's always more people to peel off, but I think a lot of the centrist republicans have already switched. Anecdotally, my dad, a lifelong republican, chose not to vote in 2016, and voted for Biden in 2020. I don't see a lot of Trump voters switching over after voting for him twice, but maybe some of the moderates who held their votes will decide to vote for democrats in the future
It could, but brass tacks: Who are these people? I mean which Reps could survive jumping ship here with their political careers intact? I'm genuinely curious because I love the idea. I just don't see it for the same reason I don't see a single Dem flipping to get a more center Republican speaker.
If you defect, you basically have to swap parties entirely, because you're not just signing up for the Speaker. You also have to expect to protect him or her from the next motion to vacate. And the next. So in for a penny, in for a pound.
This is the same reason it takes a majority to elect the Speaker in the first place: Otherwise you have a House with a Speaker that still can't actually govern.