this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2026
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So they told investors they'd make $70b and now they're bringing down the forecast to $50b . $50b is still insane, that's more revenue then any other software company except Microsoft (and probably anthropic), next closest is Salesforce with $41b, and Salesforce built that revenue over decades. Open AI finished 2025 with $13b in revenue, that's nearly 4x growth in a year on more then 10 billion in revenue, that has never been done before.
Idk if this is a sign of a bubble collapsing just because it's record setting growth and revenue aren't as explosive as they initially said. It is still very much explosive, but more a fission bomb then an h bomb. It seems the market agrees, Nvidia is down ~1% on this news, but still up 5% on this month and 20% yoy.
50B is annualized revenue, accrued revenue will be almost certainly be quite a bit lower this year.
Tech companies love reporting ARR because it is always bigger than GAAP revenue (if the business is growing at all).
It's not annualized in the traditional sense. They take their highest revenue day and multiply it by 365.
That... Doesn't make sense does it? Like apart from fraud what's the point of doing it like that?
Oh, it's absolutely a fraud meant to deceive investors.
Just not legally speaking.
But the $70b number was published by an investor, and OpenAIs crime was to not disagree publicly. Makes me wonder who is frauding whom.
I won't pretend to understand this news.
We don't even know their calculation. It's just a number they present without context.
"revenue" that's propped up by the government and ignores other factors, such as overall expenses, competing open source models, and non-realized assets.
The difference between Microsoft and OpenAI or Anthropic is that Microsoft has a profit model.
There's absolutely no way that the big LLM companies can make enough profit to overcome their expenses in the next decade even, especially since the technology on the open front only continues to improve. That's why the LLM bros keep hyping it up via fear mongering and criminal activities like hacking - to keep selling the illusion that it's AI.
its basically elizabeth holmes, but with AI, and with the same freaky facial expression.
yeah $20 imaginary dollerydoos were shaved off the $70 anticipated imaginary dollerydoos, it's all so idiotic
The bubble part is the extremely high losses, even before hiding training expenses as assets that become worthless the next month after a new version release. Also monumental promises that they will require massive new fundraising for, that fewer people understand remain possibly sustainable.
That's because you're thinking about the situation rationally, which isn't something the market is known for.
Good point. It is important to keep things in perspective.