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Windows 12 May Require a Subscription
(www.pcmag.com)
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
The article addresses literally all of your points. Installing windows would be free for oems so it's actually good for them, and MS would probably offer a free tier with ads for end users who don't want to pay.
To me that's completely believable and sounds exactly like something MS would do.
Probably AD free+AI features are behind subscription, and in sense I would be Ok with it.