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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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Despite my pointing out the rule, I do actually agree with your research.
If you saw parts of the Impeachment investigation clown show that the House GOP put on, you'll see the GOP repeatedly flouting the rules, and Democrats calling them out for it. For example, IIRC Jamie Raskin pointed out that it goes against House rules to impugn the president's character, for example, they were calling him a liar, on the floor of the House, except in an impeachment inquiry. And that they weren't allowed to have an actual impeachment inquiry without a vote. These are both House rules. He was overruled by the chair with an explanation along the lines of "This meeting is to investigate Biden, so those comments can be allowed." Which obviously goes against the rules of the House.
My real, true hope for the rule is that it gives everybody an excuse to do what they want to do, anyways. I think very few people actually want Trump to be Speaker. I think even Trump doesn't really actually want the job. It's similar to the Presidency. He probably wants to be chosen, but in reality, he doesn't want to do the work. And he's happiest if he doesn't get the job, and can whine and complain that the system has been rigged against him.
The position of Speaker is all procedure. You have to attend these long boring meetings. You have to know the rules. You have to read the rules and procedures aloud from a book in front of you. Let's not forget that Trump is functionally illiterate. If he tried to actually perform that role, it might be massively embarrassing for him. He also wouldn't have time to perform the role. So if he was elected Speaker, I think he would basically hold the role in absentia.
So I agree it's possible that Trump is the next Speaker, but my hope is that the rule gives everybody a reason not to choose Trump.
Conspiracy theorists will claim that it was all determined long ago and they started indicting Trump to prevent him from becoming Speaker.