Work Reform

Here's my breakdown after listening to a lot of analyses.

Establishment (centrist) Democrats really would rather be rich than serve the public. Seriously. If they just pass the clauses written for them by corporate lobbyists, they not only get campaign contributions and dark money, but a cushy high-paying job after their political career ends, and they get to join the ownership class. (Thank Reagan for allowing all this to become legal.)

The superdelegates in the Democratic Party are all old guard establishment Democrats.

Also Blue Dog Democrats argue that the Republicans will assert some of the more extreme ideas that the SDA are considering (e.g. abolish police, abolish prisons) which will scare their voters away. The thing is, if their voters are engaged with the far-right propaganda machine (e.g. FOX News) and are dim enough to take Republican talking points seriously, then they're not going to vote blue anyway. They need to vote red to prove their manhood, own the libs, lock immigrants in torture cages and deny gender affirming care to trans folk.

Harris made this mistake (among many) during her 2024 campaign, trying to get never-Trumpers and Liz Cheney Republicans. All those are still too racist and detest working class folk to dare vote Democrat.

Regular Democratic voters want a platform, things like universal healthcare, a jobs guarantee, higher education for all, support for Palestine (and no support for IDF), immediate action on the climate crisis. A platform draws more apathetic Democratic voters to the polls.

Independents want a better economy, and if they're not racist then they vote against the incumbent when inflation is high and jobs are down. Right now, inflation is high and jobs are down. (If they are too racist they're IINOs and actually Republican -- some Rs like to pretend they're independent if they're ashamed and in mixed company.)

Blue-no-matter-who Democrats see the Republican party and the MAGA movement as an existential threat to the United States, specifically to democracy as an institution (lower case) and the preservation of civil rights. They fight their platform battles during the primaries, and then vote against Republicans (that is, for the non-Republican everyone else is voting for -- usually the Democratic candidate, but not always).

To BNMW Democrats, the immediate issues are overhaul of SCOTUS (more than merely adding new bench seats and term limits) and federal restoration of free and fair elections (eliminating gerrymandering, voter suppression and top-down election fraud). Until these things happen, the Republican party, and the captured SCOTUS will continue to be an existential threat. As Larry Lessig points out, we've been kicking this can down the road for a long, long time, and now we're paying the price.

~ We know independents and non-voters outnumber both Democrats and Republicans
~ We know MAGAs are getting dissatisfied, between inflation, the war and the Epstein files. But MAGAs are easy to manipulate
~ We don't know how big each of these factions are, nor how determined they are to vote. There are local trends. I'm BNMW and know several, but I am afraid we're actually a tiny bunch.
~ We know that whites in the south are (generally) staunchly Republican
~ We know blacks nationwide (generally) vote Democrat. Especially black women
~ We know municipal areas vote Democrat, and because they're dense, they win popular elections (they dominate Governor and US Senate races)
~ We know rural areas vote Republican, and they get a boost from the EC. They're also useful for gerrymandering
~ We know the VRA is gutted and the southern states acted quickly to gerrymander and otherwise suppress the black vote. That will affect House seats and state assembly seats, also the race for President in 2028
~ We know that billionaires are investing hundreds of millions (that's huge) in key elections to push them red. In 2024 Musk's $250M contribution made a critical difference for Trump. In elections since, campaign money has helped less.

We expect the Democrats will take the House in November, but they will only get fifty Senate seats, leaving the majority to the Republicans. This will inhibit saving Social Security, and allow Trump to confirm bench appointments (including SCOTUS seats if Thomas or Alito retire). If Mitch McConnell remains undead (and still not voting) that will make things interesting... but hopefully the public is pissed off enough to give the Democrats that key one-more Senator.