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Russia Accelerates Military Draft Orders to Boost Troops by Tens of Thousands
(united24media.com)
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At the very least the question What does it mean to be "russian"? will for decades to come center around grappling with (or living in violent denial of) this reality that Putin/russia threw russia's future away by sacrificing the next generations of russians and whoever else they can get their hands on to a useless, futile war fought with brutally outdated tactics that wasted the lives of future russian artists, engineers, photographers, carpenters, farmers, mechanics etc......
Russia desperately needed that generation to shepherd russia into a green energy transition, to modernize and integrate russia into a radically changing technologically advanced world. Instead of valuing that generation russia decided that the average young human body was worthless with the advent off drones and AI and that they were to be discarded and thinned out from russian society to more easily cement the power of the russian oligarchs who possess the reigns of the drone armies and AI compute power.
The problem for Putin/russia is that human beings are valuable and if you throw away all of yours with disdain for years and years while your opponent doesn't it is only a matter of time until you are irrevocably fucked... which again drives a stake right into the heart of russian culture for being the self-betrayal it ultimately is.
I do wonder if China will eventually make a play for more territory, taking advantage of this weakened Russia. Either through economic, political, or (much more unlikely) military pressure.
I can’t foresee the general populace (especially one decimated by multiple rounds of conscription) having much ‘patriotism’ so far from Moscow.
The loss condition of this war for russia is not really russia collapsing, I don't think China would let that happen. What will happen is that "russia" will basically become a series of Chinese owned brands... and in this sense yes I think China will grasp an immense amount of power from russia and a lot of it might not be that obvious on paper but if it hasn't already effectively happened it is certainly going to.
China didn't invade Ukraine with a physical land army though, so I don't think things will be worse if China gets more control over russia. I am not saying there won't be problems with that, I am sure it keeps US Warhawks obsessed with China up at night, but russia is so totaled, their military so broken, and their military technology so hobbled by years of war sanctions I don't think China gaining effective control over their entire economy bit by bit will make China that much more militarily powerful. China will get a lot out of russia... once they put in the investment to fix the landscape Putin/russia trashed.
Oh absolutely - I’m not saying that the Russian Federation would balkanise and cease to be; but more pointing out that the land dispute between China and Russia, which began in the 60s, was only somewhat recently settled (late 00s from memory) - and I wouldn’t put it past China to press the advantage as a first step towards ultimately subsuming Russia into a vassal state through superior economic power.
There are many economic (mineral resources), political (expansionism), and military (increased presence in the Sea of Japan) reasons that China may want to annex some land from Eastern Russia as a concession for ongoing economic, political or military support to Russia.