this post was submitted on 13 Apr 2026
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GenZedong
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I'm getting the feeling Russia will take a lot of land in the next few months.
Maybe. But maybe not. I still tend to believe that they will continue with what they've been doing so far. If what you're doing is working, why change it? What we don't see here are the relative casualties, but that's really the key to deciding whether this approach is worth it.
It's harder to get reliable data there, but the prisoner and body exchange ratios as well as the (incomplete) stats we do have on number of vehicle losses based on visual evidence for each side indicate clearly that Russia is taking considerably less casualties than Ukraine (and that's before you factor in deep strikes on logistics and infrastructure damage, which also works in Russia's favor). If the Russian command is happy with the low casualty rate and want to keep it that way then they may decide that advancing faster is not worth it.
That being said, i also think that as the weather has been unfavorable for advances Russia has been in a bit of a pause over the last couple of months, where they mainly focused on regrouping and dealing with Ukrainian counter-attacks. It could very well be that now the pace will pick back up again. We'll have to wait and see.
I don't think Russia will change tactics. I think ukraine will be forced to because their front lines are so thin and their air defenses are all being rerouted to isisrael.
I'm not sure Ukraine is capable of changing tactics. They are stuck in a gambler's fallacy where they have to continue to double down. Air defenses are not really relevant to the front line. Ukraine's air defenses have been very poor for a very long time, interception rates for Russian missiles are very low and even drones are increasingly making it deep into Ukraine in large numbers, and Russian airpower is constantly bombing the front lines. But they can't afford to adopt a more mobile defense because that would be seen as losing. So they have to dig in and stubbornly fight to the last for every position by flooding in untrained manpower and relying almost entirely on drones. Obviously this has not worked to stop Russia, only slow them down, and has led to very high casualties for Ukraine, but there is nothing else that they can politically afford to do. Everything i'm seeing points to them doubling down on this.