this post was submitted on 12 Apr 2026
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I'm confused by why everyone sees this as stupid. It seems like an obvious eventuality. Why would Trump allow Iran to use the strait? Leaving it open to Iranian interests only benefits Iran.
Because if he blockades Chinese oil ships, as he would need to to actually blockade the Strait, he's declaring war on China.
because it only escalates the conflict further while possibly dragging in other major actors like china and India when what both sides need now (not to mention the global economy) is a negotiated peace.
edit: the consequences so far have already been terrible, and the longer this conflict goes on, the worse it will get for literally everyone.
I mean for however smart Iran had been playing things, their ceasefire conditions were not made to end the conflict. I mean there is global opposition to a toll on the strait.
Not to mention that this blockade stance is at least not diplomacy through bombs.
A blockade is diplomacy through bombs though, how do you think a blockade is enforced?
I'm not saying it's not an aggressive action, but saying I'll bomb anything that crosses this line is vastly different to I'll keep bombing your entire country.
I mean, how do you think Iran would enforce a toll on the strait. A threat of violence is part of diplomacy, maybe not the best kind of diplomacy, but still.
it sure is when Trump threatens to blow up anyone who opposes his blockade. it's just bombs through different means. and Iran is smart enough that they hold all the cards here-- Trump called the blockade illegal and the charging of tolls illegal (both true, technically), then proceeds to demand a share of the tolls and blockades the strait himself. Both of these are obviously non-starter positions which he has repeatedly, himself, very loudly called illegal, placing him in no position to use them as negotiating positions and making him look like both a hypocritical ass and an idiot. well, ya know, more.
this puts Iran ahead, again whenever they start negotiations again, and, until then, now they have a bunch of US navy warships to shoot at in the strait, just sitting there, that weren't there before, in range of their missiles and drones. boom.
add this to a long list of Trump strategic missteps and losses so far, and this weakens Trump's and the US's position even further