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Orban's chances of winning Hungary election drop after JD Vance rally (www.newsweek.com)

submitted 5 days ago by Stamau123@lemmy.world to c/nottheonion@lemmy.world

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The likelihood Viktor Orbán winning Hungary's upcoming parliamentary election has dropped since U.S. Vice President JD Vance made a speech endorsing him, according to the latest betting odds.

Speaking at a press conference in Hungary's capital, Budapest, on Wednesday, Vance said he would help the incumbent prime minister in his election campaign and praised Orbán ahead of the April 12 poll.

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[–] starik@lemmy.zip 2 points 5 days ago

People aren’t just betting on a binary choice of who they think will win. They bet based on the current price of each outcome. If you think Magyar has an 80% chance of winning, but the prices for Yes are $0.90 for Magyar and $0.10 for Orban, you buy Orban Yes because it is a better deal. The market should settle out at what the true odds are. The bigger bettors have more say, yes, but they should also presumably have more insight into the outcome, or they wouldn’t risk so much.