this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2026
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Best-case scenario for the Ramadan War / "US"-"Israel" Genocidal War of Aggression on Iran? (hexbear.net)
submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by duderium@hexbear.net to c/askchapo@hexbear.net
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I randomly saw a tweet saying that the USA would run out of oil by April 15. Obviously I have no idea if this is accurate. (The USA currently imports 10% of its oil from West Asia.) But...what if it is accurate? Or what if the USA runs out of oil in a few months instead? Will we see bread riots, a possible revolution, or capitulation to Iran?

I randomly imagined an officers' coup where the military and some bourgeoisie cut their losses and agree to Iran's proposals, withdrawing the US military from West Asia, paying reparations for the war and decades of sanctions, and purchasing oil from the region in yuan. In this scenario, the USA continues to exist but is severely weakened, and the ruling class has to figure out how to sell things to China in order to get yuan to purchase oil. It's basically Neo-Weimar / American Weimar / Weimar USA. "Israel" vanishes and 90%+ of its settler population somehow makes its way back to western countries.

I know this is a wildly optimistic scenario. I'm just spitballing. How do you imagine things shaking out over the next few months?

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[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 1 points 4 days ago
  • Strait of Hormuz stays closed to the West for a very, very long time.
  • Gulf monarchies are brought to their knees and forced to renegotiate their existence with multiple regional great powers. They end up a shell of their former selves.
  • Oil stays above $120 per barrel, and at least 20% of it is traded in yuan.
  • Lapses in fertilizer supply spark increased emphasis on soil management for agriculture instead of dumping labile nitrogen on fields.
  • Lapses in fuel supply accelerate solarization trends, especially in the Global South.
  • The aura of invincibility of the USA and Israel is utterly broken. Both their hard power and their soft power take a huge hit.
  • People around the world start to take gardening and bicycling a lot more seriously. 100-mile-lifestyle (as in a supply chain less than 100 miles for everything you use) becomes a popular trend.