this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2026
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Best-case scenario for the Ramadan War / "US"-"Israel" Genocidal War of Aggression on Iran? (hexbear.net)
submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by duderium@hexbear.net to c/askchapo@hexbear.net
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I randomly saw a tweet saying that the USA would run out of oil by April 15. Obviously I have no idea if this is accurate. (The USA currently imports 10% of its oil from West Asia.) But...what if it is accurate? Or what if the USA runs out of oil in a few months instead? Will we see bread riots, a possible revolution, or capitulation to Iran?

I randomly imagined an officers' coup where the military and some bourgeoisie cut their losses and agree to Iran's proposals, withdrawing the US military from West Asia, paying reparations for the war and decades of sanctions, and purchasing oil from the region in yuan. In this scenario, the USA continues to exist but is severely weakened, and the ruling class has to figure out how to sell things to China in order to get yuan to purchase oil. It's basically Neo-Weimar / American Weimar / Weimar USA. "Israel" vanishes and 90%+ of its settler population somehow makes its way back to western countries.

I know this is a wildly optimistic scenario. I'm just spitballing. How do you imagine things shaking out over the next few months?

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[–] duderium@hexbear.net 5 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

But the USA doesn't produce the kind of oil used to make gasoline, and the best case scenario with Venezuela is that they supply less than one percent (about 100,000 barrels) of the USA's daily petroleum needs (20,000,000 barrels). If Venezuela senses blood in the water, the situation could easily change.

[–] peeonyou@hexbear.net 8 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

The US mixes is domestic supply with heavier imported crude, namely Canadian. But Venezuelan crude will also work once the infrastructure is built up and running full-steam ahead. The crude flow shortage affects Europe greatly, and many of the smaller Asian countries, far more than it does the US. It tightens the overall supply, but the US is not reliant upon it.

It is far more dangerous for the US that countries are now paying for crude with yuan instead of the dollar. That is the major threat.

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Does Canada produce Heavy Crude? I thought Canada had light sweet crude.

[–] Transform2942@lemmy.ml 4 points 5 days ago

I'm pretty sure the Alberta tar sands produce a very heavy crude. I think the fracking/shale produces a light sweet crude