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Precisely my point, it will look a lot like The Troubles. The major difference is now the government has mass surveillance making it nearly impossible to carry out a guerrilla campaign.
For example, in a 1990s world, Luigi Mangione would never have been arrested. But we have a government who literally is capable of tracking every person through the global camera network, or through cell phone tower connections, or even random comments on social media.
And that’s before the authoritarian capture of the media cycle and social apps. The propaganda is intense these days.
All these factors make it excruciatingly difficult for a spark to light the fire, so to speak.