this post was submitted on 26 Mar 2026
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Yes but if a full invasion takes place it will only be because a limited incursion failed and the US felt forced into it.
I can certainly see a certain logic in them trying to seize one of two things from the US perspective to get a win:
Karg island, the oil, everyone knows this, no need to discuss further. They might also take a coastal city instead or try to because it would be easier and they think give them a staging ground for control of Karg (denying units there resupply or something).
The nuclear materials. Marmite I think said this and I agree it would probably be the thinking of those in power. The US started this because some of them believed the Iranians would get a nuke. Now with the leader holding back getting a nuke dead they're incredibly paranoid about it so they need to get those nuclear materials to prevent Iran racing to get several nukes before the US and zionists have a chance to re-arm or really apply economic pressure over time. So the plan would be they send in their marines plus SOF force, secure the area best they can and begin excavating with air-dropped heavy equipment that they plan to just leave when they pull out and probably explosives. Their plans would be either to actually extract the material or perhaps if that's not feasible they could also bring them with a nuclear weapon or two, drill a bit, insert the nuclear weapon, evac, detonate and fully entomb the materials by using nukes to collapse the bunker facilities they are in and scatter the materials within the remains making recovery expensive, time-consuming, and very hazardous for the Iranians as well as very observable by the west. They could then claim the radiation in the area is from an Iranian booby trap or whatever lie they care to state.
They then declare victory, claim the Iranian nuclear threat is neutralized and try for a ceasefire or some sort of compromise. If that fails because the Iranians don't go for it they're kind of stuck committing to a larger ground invasion which will take months to build up to. During which the US economy will be in tatters. Unless Iran stops themselves after the 40 days of mourning and accepts partial fulfillment of their demands. I can say that Democrats are increasingly likely to take at least one house of Congress in the mid-terms as a result of this fiasco, higher gas prices, other problems.