askchapo

It really depends on the context in which it happens. Surely it will be during some extended state or crisis or extended cycles of crisis. But what will the formations look like? We have not actually seen an imperial core revolution that wasn't some fight between larger powers, let alone in modern times.

Militarily, it depends on whether there is an external military element as well. If we took a snapshot of the US as it is and said, "okay there's revolution now" (which of course wouldn't happen right now but stay with me), the largest issue is actually industrial base and food and energy. The US military could not occupy the US itself militarily, not with troops, and by the time revolution was happening a good chunk would not be on the state's side. It would be entirely dependent on whoever controls the basic resources that have been made productively scarce. Much would need to be imported by everyone. The US can produce food and oil and electricity right now but cannot produce replacement parts for the industry needed to keep that going.

So what I'm saying is that it will depend on the conditions at the time. It could be a matter of masses of people because the military shoots its shot early and is too small, so it focuses on controlling a smaller area and leaves the rest to regional powers of a balkanized country. It could be a matter of literally who China decides should win (who gets imports) compared to how fervent the US revolutionary forces are (I mean right now they suck). It will depend on military doctrine, as you mention, as the current US military only functions to destroy countries that are poor and have little way to strike the US itself nor defend themselves locally. It has basically zero experience fighting on its own territory, all it knows how to do is end civilian infrastructure. That will destroy its own leftover industrial base, the lives of its own families. It would require a different approach or implode rapidly, leading to new conditions.

I think it's fair to say that we don't know. Precedent is lacking and the conditions under which it would happen look different than our current ones.