In the summer of 1914, enthusiasts for war were sure they'd be home by Christmas. The ancient ruling dynasties of Romanovs, Hohenzollerns, and the 700-year-old Habsburgs felt their thrones were safe. Five years later, that was all proved very wrong.
Five years is about the time span it may take to get the Persian Gulf's oil & LNG back online if it is destroyed. Iran & Israel/US are quickly nearing the point on the escalation ladder where that may happen. “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” as the famous aphorism goes. This time, the casualty may be fossil fuels themselves.
As this war progresses, the world may soon find itself in a far bigger emergency situation than COVID. Rationing and economic chaos lie ahead. Like COVID, governments will scramble for alternatives and responses.
But something is different this time. There is an alternative. It's a world dominated by renewables and electrification - not fossil fuels. We were already transitioning to it anyway. Now, war may force people's hands and make this future happen far quicker. No one wanted the old world back in 1918; they wanted a new one. We may find the same is true for fossil fuels when the latest ME war is finally done.
Europe and China are now getting more electricity from renewables than fossil fuel. Most new cars in China and EU will be electric by the end of the decade, if not sooner. Latest talk was they're really going to push solar panels and heat pumps in EU to switch that too. The whole gas thing with Russia really shook perception of energy dependance and what happened with Iran makes them push the power pedal down on going green.