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this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2026
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Yeah these are basically the two future scenarios we can look forward to. Given how things are going in Ukraine and Iran, it doesn't look like the empire is really going to be able to stamp out alternatives at this point. A very likely scenario that the west will become isolationist and start doing these things internally, but the rest of the world cuts them off.
Regarding the whole singularity idea, I don't think it's a given even if AIs can self improve. There's no guarantee that a cognitive system can just scale indefinitely. We're already seeing this playing out with LLMs where people originally thought that you could just keep making them bigger, but things starts to fall apart after a certain size. And feeding more data into them or making the network bigger doesn't produce positive results.
And I can't really see how the west can pull ahead of China in this tech given that China has a much bigger talent pool, and most AI research being published is coming from China.
Tbf so far every wall that was being approached in scalability has been overcome, and that’s one of the main reasons I think China has a massive advantage because they’ve been the primarily innovators in that regard; they have less compute to work with so they focus more on creating ingenious architecture solutions to these problems.
A large context is still a problem right now. For example, there's sort of a fundamental tension because once your network gets big enough, then it takes a long time for data to propagate through it relative to the rate of computation. So, you start running into hard limits on how much of its knowledge system can access effectively at any one time. I'm sure there's still plenty of room to grow, I'm just saying it's not a given that AI systems could just keep self improving indefinitely.
And you're completely right that China having to do more with less actually drives innovation. I also suspect that the whole data centre build out the US is rushing into is premature. This tech is still actively evolving, and we might see completely new algorithms or hardware approaches that make current gen obsolete. For example, there's already stuff like this on the hardware side, there are also analog chips being developed which would be a much better fit. And once that tech solidifies it could blow right past current types of chips. And new software algorithms like SpkingBrain could be served better by different hardware architecture.
So the US is making a huge gamble on the massive infrastructure investment that's unlikely to pay off.