See the Qatari energy chief's statements yesterday: https://hexbear.net/post/7875589
Locally fuel prices have shot up before any of the actual consequences of the shipping disruption have begun, and I'm temporarily shielded from the real initial shock by domestic production. The 1973 Oil Crisis was a big contributor to cars becoming more efficient and EV technology being re-adopted. My city's bike trail network began construction in response to how many people switched to cycling after it. That initial network, which is much cheaper and faster to construct and easier to maintain than a road, induced demand for a whole socioecological shift in the city's development. Intact concrete panels from the 1980s wind along protected waterways and high-density housing, cleared of snow within hours of a storm by a single pickup truck, with everyone of every age being able to birdwatch in native habitat for free.
Even with the price of electricity increasing for AI slop, I'll pay around $20 to replace 99% of my urban driving this year. Anything within 80km is achievable with the current batteries and those are rapidly advancing, especially in terms of fire safety and recharge time. The experience is the complete opposite of everything I hate about driving. As a tech, it's poised for a Ford Model T moment of mass adoption that we started seeing with COVID. Most of the parts are there and they're waiting on economies of scale to make it into cheaper bikes more than they are new developments.
I think/hope/Timmy-pray that this will be the generational shock in oil and natural gas markets that break people out of car brain. Even if I wanted to trade in my car for an EV to avoid the fuel shortages/prices, the broader economic collapse makes that a pipe dream. People can at least afford something that costs 1/5th-1/10th of what a reliable used car does, and I think this might spiral into a crisis catastrophic enough to spur mass advocacy for the initial bike infrastructure in the places lacking it.
Otherwise I agree with the demons doing it that the war is apocalyptic, but it'd be nice if this is the big one for bicyclists. We might get barriers and happy neighbours.
My ebike is an omafiets style bike and I absolutely, 1000% second getting a step through. May well go with a cargo bike to replace it. My big error was not checking on the cost of replacement batteries, my bike doesn't have any aftermarket options and a replacement costs more than the bike's worth. So yeah, especially in a budget check what it will cost to replace the battery, they don't last forever!