See the Qatari energy chief's statements yesterday: https://hexbear.net/post/7875589
Locally fuel prices have shot up before any of the actual consequences of the shipping disruption have begun, and I'm temporarily shielded from the real initial shock by domestic production. The 1973 Oil Crisis was a big contributor to cars becoming more efficient and EV technology being re-adopted. My city's bike trail network began construction in response to how many people switched to cycling after it. That initial network, which is much cheaper and faster to construct and easier to maintain than a road, induced demand for a whole socioecological shift in the city's development. Intact concrete panels from the 1980s wind along protected waterways and high-density housing, cleared of snow within hours of a storm by a single pickup truck, with everyone of every age being able to birdwatch in native habitat for free.
Even with the price of electricity increasing for AI slop, I'll pay around $20 to replace 99% of my urban driving this year. Anything within 80km is achievable with the current batteries and those are rapidly advancing, especially in terms of fire safety and recharge time. The experience is the complete opposite of everything I hate about driving. As a tech, it's poised for a Ford Model T moment of mass adoption that we started seeing with COVID. Most of the parts are there and they're waiting on economies of scale to make it into cheaper bikes more than they are new developments.
I think/hope/Timmy-pray that this will be the generational shock in oil and natural gas markets that break people out of car brain. Even if I wanted to trade in my car for an EV to avoid the fuel shortages/prices, the broader economic collapse makes that a pipe dream. People can at least afford something that costs 1/5th-1/10th of what a reliable used car does, and I think this might spiral into a crisis catastrophic enough to spur mass advocacy for the initial bike infrastructure in the places lacking it.
Otherwise I agree with the demons doing it that the war is apocalyptic, but it'd be nice if this is the big one for bicyclists. We might get barriers and happy neighbours.
Avoid Rad Power Bikes. They just declared bankruptcy and are voiding warranties. COVID caused a big spike in ebike sales and Rad is one of those companies that thought it was the big moment. They overstocked in anticipation of sales booming forever and were left with recycling those 2021 models as 2023-2025 ones to try to scrape sales together while dealing with wrongful death/battery fire lawsuits. The only worse option is a no-name ebike off Amazon.
I have an Aventon Abound LR and love it. They go for like $1500 on Upway or $2000 on the manufacturer website. It's enough to fit a week's worth of groceries, 1-2 kids, or a sub-60kg adult on the back. In a year and 3000km~ of usage it hasn't given me any issues. Aventon weathered the storm in the 2022-2024 market downturn and they're regarded as the best of the value brands. When I was buying it and comparing it to Rad's options pre-bankruptcy, what won me over was anti-theft suite that I use every time I ride.
Now I'm considering upgrading to a Tern though. For the extra $1000-2000, I can run it into the ground for a decade with confidence in the electronics. A mid-drive motor means rear wheel repairs aren't obnoxious and the bikes stand vertically for easy indoor storage. My first ebike was a Lectric and I learned the hard way that a cheap bike is expensive and ebike speeds are too fast for cheap components. I'm confident in my Abound, but I'm expecting 5 years of heavy use for that $2000 before it needs electronics swaps that are hard with the proprietary frame design.
edit: I will also say that a cargo bike is the right choice. I have two commuter bikes and the cargo one. There's never a time I choose the commuter bikes over the cargo one. 20" tyres with a step-through design has saved my ass so many times when commuting on bad terrain. I feel a lot more confident on ice especially (after upgrading the stock tyres to Schwalbe Pick-Ups). Its low centre of gravity is critical for feeling safe at 32kmh with any kind of weight on the back. That particular bike is the best thing I've ever purchased in terms of utility.
My ebike is an omafiets style bike and I absolutely, 1000% second getting a step through. May well go with a cargo bike to replace it. My big error was not checking on the cost of replacement batteries, my bike doesn't have any aftermarket options and a replacement costs more than the bike's worth. So yeah, especially in a budget check what it will cost to replace the battery, they don't last forever!
Thanks for that write up about Rad, no wonder the used market is flooded with them.
It sucks because most people I know with a Rad bike love their bike. I was seriously considering a Radwagon after originally wanting to get an ebike seeing a classmate ride their cruiser model up a hill I hate. When Yamaha left the US market and did a similar kind of fire sale, it was legitimately a good deal because you were getting a $3000 bike and a $1000 spare battery for $1500. Even without warranty support, Yamaha will still exist forever in other markets so you can source the parts. Rad was a $1500 bike from 2020 for $1500 in 2026 and no continued production.
The only sure bet with longevity is to get the best ebike you can from the longest-established brand. Even if it's a used one off Upway or Facebook Marketplace that has low mileage, my $1600 Upway commuter bike that sold for $3500 before Bianchi left the US market is a lot more reliable than my $1400 Lectric commuter bike. For that little bump in the price I got super high quality Bosch components, a much quieter mid-drive motor that makes riding more pleasant and naturalistic, and a carbon fibre belt that cuts out the messy part of maintaining the bike. Bianchi still exists in Europe even if the trade war makes it a pain to source their proprietary rack system from German bike stores.
I've definitely noticed that there is a quality boost at certain price points. I'm looking at the specialized globe haul st. This review swayed me (be sure to notice the sticker on the reviewers helmet). I'd love a bosch mid drive instead though
Every time I see a Globe Haul I think it's the better version of what I have and wish I had bought it instead. Unfortunately the only mid-drive cargo bikes I know of are Terns and the Cargowagen Neo before the $5000 price point. Both infrequently come up on Upway for around $3000-3500. Rear-hubs get the job done and don't feel bad, but it's nice to have the extra push on hills and that push feels like it's coming from your legs rather than a motor behind you. The real benefit from a Bosch mid-drive is that it will outlast most of the other options on the market. That's five extra years or so of use for less than the cost of replacing one of my bikes with half the longevity.