See the Qatari energy chief's statements yesterday: https://hexbear.net/post/7875589
Locally fuel prices have shot up before any of the actual consequences of the shipping disruption have begun, and I'm temporarily shielded from the real initial shock by domestic production. The 1973 Oil Crisis was a big contributor to cars becoming more efficient and EV technology being re-adopted. My city's bike trail network began construction in response to how many people switched to cycling after it. That initial network, which is much cheaper and faster to construct and easier to maintain than a road, induced demand for a whole socioecological shift in the city's development. Intact concrete panels from the 1980s wind along protected waterways and high-density housing, cleared of snow within hours of a storm by a single pickup truck, with everyone of every age being able to birdwatch in native habitat for free.
Even with the price of electricity increasing for AI slop, I'll pay around $20 to replace 99% of my urban driving this year. Anything within 80km is achievable with the current batteries and those are rapidly advancing, especially in terms of fire safety and recharge time. The experience is the complete opposite of everything I hate about driving. As a tech, it's poised for a Ford Model T moment of mass adoption that we started seeing with COVID. Most of the parts are there and they're waiting on economies of scale to make it into cheaper bikes more than they are new developments.
I think/hope/Timmy-pray that this will be the generational shock in oil and natural gas markets that break people out of car brain. Even if I wanted to trade in my car for an EV to avoid the fuel shortages/prices, the broader economic collapse makes that a pipe dream. People can at least afford something that costs 1/5th-1/10th of what a reliable used car does, and I think this might spiral into a crisis catastrophic enough to spur mass advocacy for the initial bike infrastructure in the places lacking it.
Otherwise I agree with the demons doing it that the war is apocalyptic, but it'd be nice if this is the big one for bicyclists. We might get barriers and happy neighbours.
The spectrum of choice between analog bikes and a basic commuter car is ripe for some disruption, even more so with a fuel crisis looming. Kei-cars are also in that middle space on the spectrum. Highways and high speed stroads are such a barrier to new riders in many areas (especially low density suburbs), but it can often be improved with some minimal infra investments in comparison to the highways and stroads. Storm water infra is often ideally situated for this kind of multi-use updating. Hopefully this crisis can lead to a massive bike boom that deals a potent blow to the hollow shambling zombie of car culture and car infra investment.
I'd personally really like to see some more e-bike or e-trike options on the area of the spectrum closer to kei-cars. Not quite a full vehicle, but like pedicabs and rickshaws and such that are about half the width of a regular car so they can comfortably share the bike paths.
One other thing for your Bicycle Bolshevik Garden City of the Future, is public bathroom/shower facilities spread around the urban fabric. This would make bike commuting so much nicer overall, and each one could have some other amenities that provide a local community space.
Let's all
this into existence.
I fucking loved my ebike and will be replacing it once I have work again (unfortunately the battery died and it would cost about half as much as a whole new bike to replace, there are no aftermarket options. I loved my Smartmotion but the next one will be a brand where aftermarket batteries exist!)
Aliexpress has some really interesting options for that middle-ground vehicle you're describing. Enclosed etrikes and four-wheel models for $2000-6000. I want that similar progression of kei trucks to this guy's thing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHU8VK3qIa4
The bathroom issue is one of the best parts of my city's trail network. It's focused on connecting schools, services, and stores through the parks system. If you ride ten minutes in any direction at most there's an accessible bathroom and a bike repair station with covered picnic tables nearby. They lack showers though as the city tries to concentrate its homeless population around the shelters with dedicated services nearby.
That DIY camper is really awesome. I love the crossover of simple fabrication and functionality. Sub-car sized electric vehicles can be quite simple if you aren't attempting to go over ~35 mph.
I really like the designs of this other builder that uses mostly tubing to build adaptive mobility reverse trikes with all terrain capabilities. This one that is a recumbent pickup cargo trike with solar roof if especially cool: https://youtube.com/shorts/mBIsqXPoq0g
His whimsicalbullshitmobile is my solarpunk ideal. We still need something like cars for people who have more than two children below age 10 or multiple pets, bulk cargo, and long-range trips beyond what solid state batteries will enable for ebikes. There the choice is between industrial and artisan production. I can't make my car, but I could slap together this Studio Ghibli-ass camper in a library socialism workshop with a community college class at most to have the right vehicle for my needs. Building it would teach me a lot, and the modularity would make it useful for decades with home repairs for the most complex parts. Cars would still reflect personalities, but that's a good thing about bike culture. My bike is dressed like a donkey and it makes riding more fun without being antisocial like bumper stickers or loud/performance-enhancing car modifications. If someone wants to drive a camper that looks like a log cabin, at that speed it isn't hurting anyone and it makes my city's culture more fun. They get to camp in an affordable cabin instead of a giant SUV. The elderly get to drive something safe and goofy instead of Prius Missiles.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: