See the Qatari energy chief's statements yesterday: https://hexbear.net/post/7875589
Locally fuel prices have shot up before any of the actual consequences of the shipping disruption have begun, and I'm temporarily shielded from the real initial shock by domestic production. The 1973 Oil Crisis was a big contributor to cars becoming more efficient and EV technology being re-adopted. My city's bike trail network began construction in response to how many people switched to cycling after it. That initial network, which is much cheaper and faster to construct and easier to maintain than a road, induced demand for a whole socioecological shift in the city's development. Intact concrete panels from the 1980s wind along protected waterways and high-density housing, cleared of snow within hours of a storm by a single pickup truck, with everyone of every age being able to birdwatch in native habitat for free.
Even with the price of electricity increasing for AI slop, I'll pay around $20 to replace 99% of my urban driving this year. Anything within 80km is achievable with the current batteries and those are rapidly advancing, especially in terms of fire safety and recharge time. The experience is the complete opposite of everything I hate about driving. As a tech, it's poised for a Ford Model T moment of mass adoption that we started seeing with COVID. Most of the parts are there and they're waiting on economies of scale to make it into cheaper bikes more than they are new developments.
I think/hope/Timmy-pray that this will be the generational shock in oil and natural gas markets that break people out of car brain. Even if I wanted to trade in my car for an EV to avoid the fuel shortages/prices, the broader economic collapse makes that a pipe dream. People can at least afford something that costs 1/5th-1/10th of what a reliable used car does, and I think this might spiral into a crisis catastrophic enough to spur mass advocacy for the initial bike infrastructure in the places lacking it.
Otherwise I agree with the demons doing it that the war is apocalyptic, but it'd be nice if this is the big one for bicyclists. We might get barriers and happy neighbours.
His whimsicalbullshitmobile is my solarpunk ideal. We still need something like cars for people who have more than two children below age 10 or multiple pets, bulk cargo, and long-range trips beyond what solid state batteries will enable for ebikes. There the choice is between industrial and artisan production. I can't make my car, but I could slap together this Studio Ghibli-ass camper in a library socialism workshop with a community college class at most to have the right vehicle for my needs. Building it would teach me a lot, and the modularity would make it useful for decades with home repairs for the most complex parts. Cars would still reflect personalities, but that's a good thing about bike culture. My bike is dressed like a donkey and it makes riding more fun without being antisocial like bumper stickers or loud/performance-enhancing car modifications. If someone wants to drive a camper that looks like a log cabin, at that speed it isn't hurting anyone and it makes my city's culture more fun. They get to camp in an affordable cabin instead of a giant SUV. The elderly get to drive something safe and goofy instead of Prius Missiles.