this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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When a military force begins to decline, the first symptoms may be subtle.

On multiple occasions after President Trump launched a massive air campaign against Iran this past weekend, retaliatory attacks by simply constructed Iranian drones have penetrated American defenses with serious results. For example, at least six U.S. soldiers died, and others were wounded, in an Iranian strike Sunday on a command facility in Kuwait. CNN reported that the Americans received no warning of the incoming drone. According to CBS News, the fortifications around the facility protected it from car bombs but not from a direct overhead strike. “We basically had no drone defeat capability,” an unnamed military official told the network.

. . .

When a complex system starts to decay, the first signs are usually subtle. In the third century, after the Roman empire had reached its geographic maximum, literacy began to decline across Roman society. Education levels fell not only among soldiers, but among officers, aristocrats, and even emperors. The Roman army still looked formidable for years afterward. It had good equipment and could march well. Yet it was no longer as advanced relative to Rome’s enemies as it had once been. It fought as hard as ever, but less effectively.

The capabilities of the U.S. military are still far superior to Iran’s. Yet certain developments in the American bombing campaign against Iran—a country seemingly rendered almost helpless after Israel destroyed most of its air defenses last year—are revealing what look like signs of strain.

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[–] shawn1122@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

I would be incredibly naive for us to assume Khameini was just another tinpot dictator. There's no way that, knowing this day would come, he hasn't made a priority of building institutional resilience designed to withstand his demise and/or an attack from Israel/US. He was in his late 80s. We can be sure that the conversation around who would succeed him was happening even before this war started.

As terrible as he was, he was by no means politically unintelligent. Unfortunately we can't say the same for America's leadership at the moment.

Regime change is incredibly difficult work, even with strong political will and support from the people. America arguably had that with Afghanistan, and even with much of the resources of the world, couldn't pull it off.

[–] FaceDeer@fedia.io 1 points 1 month ago

Yeah, but the fact that they were able to take out a big chunk of second-in-commands and potential successors at the same time doesn't help the stability much.

That meeting they were having should really have been a Zoom call.