this post was submitted on 05 Mar 2026
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Gigantism in mining trucks like Belaz 75710 https://www.lectura-specs.com/en/model/construction-machinery/rigid-dump-trucks-belaz/75710-11738579 with 360 tons and 1.7 MW diesel-electric hybrids -- which frequently run 24/7 -- is due to ore grade depletion. You might want to run the numbers of how a sodium-ion mining truck would look like, and how long it would have to recharge. Notice the tires, they're made from at least partly synthetic rubber. What you don't see is lubricants, also synthetic. Polymers, synthetic. Notice the amount of structural steel. Electric arc vacuum ovens for steel recycling exist, but nobody runs them on 100% renewable. That's because of the battery buffering needed. Look at aluminium -- current electrolytic melt processes need 24/7 energy.
Solar PV with battery buffers (necessary for 24/7 industrial processes) has ERoEI of less than 4 which is insufficient to maintain a complex industrial society. You can try to substitute some of that with small-batch fast (running just during the day or whenever the wind blows) processes, but that will be the minority.
You mention horses a lot -- these will be needed again, after the industrial age. And slaves, and ships made of wood. Which will do fine in a world with maybe 100 million people. Maybe a lot less.