stupidpol

https://redlib.catsarch.com/r/stupidpol/comments/1rj3ohq/politico_moscow_gloats_over_potential_oil_price/

With the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain closed for weeks, and with Iran now regularly striking Aramco and other Gulf refineries and ports, prices may soon cross $100 a barrel. Quoting an analyst I saw on Twitter:

If Russia simply manages to raise its discounted price from $60/bbl to $90/bbl and manages to take a further 15% share of China's import mix, that is an additional $4.8 billion in Russian coffers each month, easing fiscal pressure on the Russian government at a critical moment in the Ukraine war. Even a few weeks of disruptions will be highly lucrative.

https://x.com/yarbatman/status/2028248963535511722

There are two developing schools of thought on how this war might conclude: (1) corporate elites will pressure Trump to wrap it up, and Iran will accept a ceasefire after it's caused significant enough hurt to the U.S. in the form of casualties and material losses. To that effect, Trump said yesterday that combat operations were proceeding "more quickly than expected" and Iran's Larijani authorized negotiators to resume talks with the U.S. (2) The other school of thought says that Israel cannot accept anything less than the full Libya-ization of Iran, the destruction of its society and the fostering of full-scale civil war, and that Israel is in the driver's seat of U.S. policy. Simultaneously, Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire offer yesterday and analysts such as Trita Parsi say that Iran's policymakers believe they cannot allow the U.S. a quick exit with minimal political pain will merely allow it to restock and attack again next year

If the war goes on for weeks, the knock-on effects will be more far-reaching than most people are considering atm. Saudi officials have put out statements that the U.S. is allowing Gulf refineries to be hit because their sole focus is intercepting strikes over Israel. And as became clear just a few weeks into the Gaza Genоcide, given the choice between prioritizing Ukraine and Israel, the U.S. will always err on the side of Israel