General collapse of the American economy due to AI and the “everything bubble”. Though I could see this maybe accelerating an industrialization push if the timing is right.
Increased class consciousness among American working class that transcends momentary improvements or declines in the conditions of the working class.
Increased anti-US sentiment among Europeans and maybe even some class consciousness.
Increased collaboration among the Global South à la the Non-Aligned Movement which is able to set up alternative economic paradigms. Even if they are not globally dominant, it will affect the calculation of US and China.
Russia’s maneuvering to stay relevant and not vassalized in the US-China dynamic.
Climate change drastically shifting production geography.
Forgot an obvious one: incompetence of US leaders to manage the transition you laid out.

How likely any one of these factors is, probably not that likely. Any crystal ball is likely to be cloudy for a while though.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 14 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I don’t disagree. I am just laying out the dynamics of the inherent contradictions of American capitalism. Whether it will go down a certain path and whether it will succeed are entirely different questions, and the new contradictions that will emerge in doing so. It’s like trying to model the weather - we know a lot about how air movement and pressure systems cause precipitation, but we can only forecast it (with some level of accuracy) no more than a few days out. It is a non-linear complex system.

[–] FloridaBoi@hexbear.net 10 points 4 days ago (1 children)

General collapse of the American economy due to AI and the “everything bubble”. Though I could see this maybe accelerating an industrialization push if the timing is right.

From what I’ve read recently, they’re pushing data centers to many countries at the same time. So it goes along xhs thesis about expanding FDI making other markets captive to US interests.

I think the other points are a bit optimistic. But point 6 seems to always be underestimated whether catastrophic weather phenomena or pandemics.

Point 7 is interesting because the factions within the trump admin are often in opposition in methods and outcomes. So the incompetence and the hubris can lead to failures in their goals.

I do think that corporate sway over policy which may contradict admin, social breakdown due to pullback of welfare and basic services, and internal political fracturing and strife within the US are more wildcards that could radically change outcomes.

[–] quarrk@hexbear.net 6 points 4 days ago (1 children)

corporate sway over policy

This is a great point. Private corporations hold a lot of control over the US state proper, which could undermine the state’s functional purpose of managing the common bourgeois class interest, as individual capitals influence one-sided decisions at the state level which are self-destructive in the long term. But idk, corporations also got in line behind Trump real quick this second term, so even that feels like cope as I’m writing it. Guess only time can tell how competent these fascists are.

[–] FloridaBoi@hexbear.net 3 points 4 days ago

While corporations especially Silicon Valley ones did fall in line, trump still seems sensitive to markets which appear to have forced him to back off from certain positions. So maybe it would be better to say markets instead of corporations would sway the admin.