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Microsoft completely misjudged Baldur’s Gate 3
(www.polygon.com)
Baldur’s Gate 3 is a story-rich, party-based RPG set in the universe of Dungeons & Dragons, where your choices shape a tale of fellowship and betrayal, survival and sacrifice, and the lure of absolute power. (Website)
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These documents are from 2019 dude, so it's not like could have tried the early access.
I know, but DOS existed. Larian was already well known for their sprawling rpgs. BG3 isn't an outlier here. Point is, it was foreseeable if you actually looked and knew what to look for.