this post was submitted on 17 Jan 2026
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Early into college I convinced a few people there isn't free will because it contradicts everything we know about psychology. That said, I also explained it didn't matter since there's so much going on that it's difficult to predict a person's behavior with absolute certainty, even with a multitude of information about them.
To simplify, a coin flip is considered random even if all the forces are physical and deterministic. The angle and strength of the flip, the air resistance, gentle breezes, the precise gravity where it takes place given the pull from the earth and hell, even the moon... you can factor in so much and be right maybe 99.9% of the time with proper controls and yet there's always something.
Human brains have magnitudes more going on, so even if some factors are strong predictors, there's always an illusion of free will since there are so many other factors we haven't even imagined.