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I feel like it's unlikely to be a hardware issue unless the drive Proxmox is on is dying. SMART is fine, but it's on an SSD that's nearly 15 years old, so it very well might be the cause. I need to migrate it to one of my nvme disks eventually.
But, I can boot into the Windows physical disk just fine (instead of booting into Proxmox and running it as a VM). Same with a live ISO on USB.
The fact that it's perfectly stable after I do get it to boot is why I'm chasing down a software issue first. I also don't want to think about the cost of having to replace hardware yet. But I'm definitely not ruling it out completely.
I'm going to take the advice of another commenter and turn off quiet in grub so I can get a better look at what's actually going on under the hood.