this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2026
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If you're wrong, you can end up acting overcautiously, like McClellan against Lee in the US Civil War.
Knowing when the enemy is at a disadvantage, or when the odds of a battle are winnable, is a key part of estimating the enemy. If you think the enemy has twice the number of troops they actually do, you'll miss windows of opportunity to make successful strikes - because you think they're twice as strong at that point than they actually are.