We are now beginning to enter the stage of the war where Russia is unable to sustain a general offensive all the way up and down the frontline and must resort to terrorism to project fear and the illusion of unstoppable, corrupted power.

Expect more and more of this crap as Russia is less and less able to credibly fight a ground war.

Remember, acts of terrorism definitionally rely on propaganda creating mass panic for their power as if the perpetrators of the terrorism possessed true power they would have resorted to actual coordinated military action such as fighting on the frontline or taking territory.

In otherwords if Russia chooses to attempt something like this, it is by definition a sign of extreme weakness on their part as was the lazy attempt to claim Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin.

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[–] ChristchurchAsshole@lemmy.ml -1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I hate to tell you this but it'll probably end with putin alive and ukraine ceding territory.

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

That's a surprising claim.

How would that happen?

[–] ChristchurchAsshole@lemmy.ml -1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

A result of a loss of manpower and eventual loss of political will to continue the war. The parts that Russia controls aren't coming back to ukraine except maybe the last 30km where russia hasn't set up proper defences.

[–] Tuuktuuk@kbin.melroy.org 1 points 5 days ago

Loss of manpower is a problem, but because the Russia is constantly losing a larger share of its population, it's more problem for the Russia than for Ukraine, and therefore – a bit weirdly – the problem with loss of manpower is a net positive for Ukraine.
I don't think many people would really mind that much if the Donbas situation was reverted to the 2020 status, but Crimea is strategically so useful for the Russia in its next war against Ukraine that it's a bit of a bad idea letting go of it.

And then there's the stretch of land between Donetsk and Džankoj, Crimea. If the Russia gets to keep that, there is no way to stop them from attacking again. Ukraine's position will be so much more difficult to defend in that case than it is now, and actually even more difficult than it was in 2022.

Furthermore, although I don't think this is a subject they think much about in Ukraine, what the Russia is holding in that part of Ukraine is the best farmland on all this planet. More than half of all of the black soil on this planet is located in Ukraine, and most of the best soil in Ukraine is in the part occupied by the Russia. With the climate changing, there will be lack of food and starvation. It's either food for me, Ukrainians, and you. Or for the murderous nation east of Ukraine. It's a super bad deal if we let all that slip away. It's about the food my children will be eating. I don't care if murderers starve, but I do care if my child does.

So, at least it's a very bad idea letting the Russia have those areas. It means there will be another war in Europe, and it's better that there won't.

And then: Yeah, the Russia has set up proper defences, but how will it defend those proper defences without manpower? All of the Russian army is currently volunteers. They are volunteering almost solely for money. In eastern Siberia 50 € per month is literally a normal monthly salary. In 2015 I hanged around in Ukraine with people who got a salary of 2000 UAH, which translated to 70 € per month by the rate of those days. And eastern Siberia is poorer than Ukraine is. And those people living in east-Siberian villages, getting 50 € per month get a salary of 2000 € per month if they join the army as ~~mer~~volunteers.

The Russian economy is tanking big time. Around late summer 2022 it was prognosed that it will crash around the end of 2025 or first half of 2026. Now that's been moved to summer to autumn 2026, but the original prognosis holds surprisingly well. The same reasons that were seen back then are still valid. The whole military economy is pushed on the shoulders of the regions and banks. Those regions are now out of money and unable to generate more and the preferential loans that now form most of the loans given out by banks generate zero interest for the banks and will never be paid back. The banks no longer have money to "lend" to the military industry, meaning that the military industry can no longer sell their products cheaper than their own production costs. And that means the government will have to start paying the full price for the military hardware, meaning they will have even less money.
Paying 2000 € per month for 700 000 people will not be possible. They will have to move to conscription. At this point very few Russian soldiers go to the war against their own will. Once the ability to pay salary to the soldiers is gone, there will be only soldiers who have been brought to the front against their own will. When those start dying en masse, that will have an effect. It's one thing to send your son to a war based on false promises, but a whole different thing to have your son snatched into a war that will bring nothing to your nation or your family. It will be extremely difficult to keep the remote Siberian regions fully under Moscow's command. They will gradually stop obeying commands from Moscow.

What this means is that the Russia will seize to be able to replenish its military. Their only way of using those defensive structures is by sacrificing at minimum 20 000 conscripts per month for that. Let's tell a small anecdote: A have (had?) a friend from Moscow, whose uncle moved to Siberia. He was given a plot of land for free, a dilapidated house for free, and was paid a relatively high monthly lump sum for the first couple of years so that he could get his life going. Now, why? The reason is, they don't have enough population there. The population is decreasing so much that Moscow had to pay such high money to keep those regions inhabited. Under those circumstances, how are they going to send 20 000 people per month away from the same area?! They had a population emergency there, and they still do. Removing 20 000 people per month will not help alleviate that emergency!

It is entirely possible that the west manages to pressure Ukraine into a peace deal, but if that's not done, then the Russia will have to switch to conscription by autumn this year. And then it can no longer fight.