this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2025
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Climate change alone is going to come in gut punching India like a prize-fighter within a decade and get really bad within 20 years. Add in the built in momentum, cash, looted goods, cultural hegemony, etc, etc of the west and I just don't see India displacing it short of a catastrophic happening like the west nuking itself or getting nailed by an asteroid that somehow doesn't devastate the rest of the globe as well. Fact is US has first mover advantage. They have the money, networks, cultural and social cachet to buy off Indian comprador bourgeoisie in at least some small numbers, reverse isn't true.
What worries me is not the US or India winning in such a unwarranted match-up but the US and India teaming up to the extent that they harm China and hamper the rest of the world enough to delay their independence from the west long enough for climate change to come in and fuck up most of the global south to such an extent that the west comes out the winner this century and China no matter how well it advances is unable to free the rest of the world in time before barbarism settles in driven by climate change.
Examining the data, reading about it alone gives me mild sympathetic panic.