Archive: https://archive.ph/iAXca
Highlight: "In East Asia, China will likely move to enforce its own version of the Monroe Doctrine. Beijing will continue to use incremental tactics and economic coercion against neighbors to pressure them to decouple or distance themselves from Washington. In coming years, the extent to which Beijing attempts to eject the United States from its region politically and militarily will likely define the principal arena of U.S.-Chinese strategic rivalry. “Don’t make us choose” has been the mantra of many East Asian countries, including some U.S. treaty allies. But under bipolarity, the luxury of choice is not one afforded to small countries in a superpower’s backyard. Countries will be forced to choose, and choose correctly according to their neighbor, or risk the consequences. The return of bipolarity means it’s time to remember—with regret and trepidation—the nature, intensity, and global reach of superpower competition."
I get her idea, Russia is actually in China's grip. Though I wonder where she got a verifiable Chinese GDP and population number ( I sure hope she didn't copy the WTO numbers)
Her analysis is very flat in that regard also because the USSR had sattelite states, but in general I think it is useful in the sense that it underlines that the US is no longer ahead of China. Her other articles on the topic are similar to the FA article. She doesn't go into the details but the structure of the task the military of China and US seeks to fill is different: China has to fight US, US protects water ways, helps defend Europe, etc. which is a big factor in the military strategic balance between the two. The methodology can be found here https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/49/2/7/125214/Back-to-Bipolarity-How-China-s-Rise-Transformed
Yes thanks I scanned that link, when you posted those later. I did find her work and methodology insightful. Especially her historical reference and creating a sort of Superpower Index. She uses references that to me aren't always understandable. Like how to measure or guessimate GDP in the 19th century. But since her work was peercheked I assume her method should check out.