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If it is the Flexi rule clarification then they would have know about it in advance and have had time to make changes to work around it.
The car is so bad in quali today it's like they had no time to prepare for a rule change announced the same weekend as implemented, just seems odd that RB of all people would be so caught out like this as the change in performance is massive.
If Max gets a significant penalty for impeding then I would expect a pit lane start so they can work on setup. If they don't then it's not a setup issue but a car issue. Horner insists nothing changed yet if it's not setup then what else can it be?
Neither the new floor nor the gear shift have anything to do with the wings. I think it's just coincidence. I think it was a feedback loop of getting nervous after initially getting the updates wrong and then panicking more and more.
Wasn't the Flexi stuff also the front wing/nose?
If you lack downforce then the amount of power you can put down in corners is also impacted, which you can address by changing the map with earlier upshifts.
Checo was complaining about lack of power at the start of the corner he had his spin that then came in late, like they were cutting power.
Otherwise it would be very odd to change the engine map unless they are worried about Ferrari style PU rule breaches and toned it down. They had enough pace to just put on new PUs, take the penalty and still win, so I don't buy the PU is at risk of going.
Max said that the car felt better at the end of FP3 on F1TV (before they did adjustments for the qualification), so it's probably a setup issue.
Fp3 they reverted the new floor edges for the old ones as well