this post was submitted on 22 Nov 2025
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Question is, would they actually do it? Or would they just pull a Medvedev and keep repeating "technically we could nuke you"?
I understand China finds it important to constrain itself to international law to retain a moral high ground. But Russia did the exact same thing with regards to Ukraine and it didn't amount to much in their defense. At least I suppose now history is judging them favourably for it.
Any first strike will mean war, and I think it's in China's interests (and foreign policy style) to wait for the first strike to come from the enemy and react.
I highly doubt that China would strike Japan directly, especially before securing Taiwan. Any Chinese offensive would instantly reignite the Korean War and draw Taiwan into the fray, while irrevocable destroying any goodwill China maintains with the Philippines, Vietnam, and India, among others.
The campaign would also be a bloodbath as a result of the PLA being forced to rely on supply lines stretched across the East China Sea, with Chinese troops being limited to any gains made during initial amphibious landings, which themselves are a costly endeavor. While the JGSDF pales in comparison to the PLA, the home turf advantage, ability to funnel Chinese forces into narrow fronts, and high probability of major cities turning into quagmires, would make the entire operation hellish for the PLA and Chinese morale.
Instead of a cry for open conflict, China’s comments are probably more of a warning to Japan to not interfere with a Taiwanese offensive, since Japanese bases, airfields, and ports are the lynchpin of any potential American involvement or defensive strategy.