this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2025
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The art of the completely unworkable deal. Completely strip Ukraine of everything other than its military, which is exactly one of Russia's strongest red lines, while also effectively adding Ukraine to NATO (security guarantee) with obvious loopholes in the invalidation of this guarantee (just shoot missiles at somewhere which is not Moscow or St Petersburg).
Since Russia is now finally seizing the entirety of Pokrovsk and continuing their slow push, while getting more practical battle experience, with no signs of economic or political crisis, I think it's safe to say they'll be able to continue saying "no" until all of their demands are met.
In a sense, I think stopping the war is more urgent for the US than anything, so they can access the Russian markets again before their incoming stock crash.
My read on the whole thing is that Kellogg, Europeans, and Ukrainians convinced Trump that everything was going great after Alaska talks. So, Trump backed out of the peace settlement he himself proposed based on that. Now that everybody can see the front is collapsing, Trump is scrambling to cobble together some semblance of a deal.
Putin has agreed to the draft proposal, I think it will be unworkable for Ukraine but in the event they dont sign they will lose the entire country, nevermind just the east.