this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2025
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This is 100% an American proposal. The Russians will look at it and if there is something they don't like they will propose corrections. I suspect that the notion of agreeing to having their foreign reserves stolen to pay for Ukraine is a non-starter. As is not getting all four annexed oblasts which are now part of the Russian constitution in their entirety.
The rest, as Yog said, is fairly close to what the Russians were demanding: a kind of "Istanbul plus". The thing is though, that already most of this proposal is completely unacceptable to the Kiev regime and its European backers, who will probably reject it and insist on continuing the war. That in turn allows the US to walk away and leave Europe holding the bag, and Russia to impose its demands by military means, which the Russians are already prepared for, and will result in even harsher terms (just like the current terms are much harsher than those offered by Russia in Istanbul 2022, which in turn were much worse than the Minsk agreements - notice the pattern?) than what Ukraine could be getting now while they still have an army that is on the brink but not yet collapsed.
The reason why I am fairly confident that this will be rejected by the Kiev junta is because it is so humiliating and such a total defeat of the whole Maidan/Banderite nationalist and pro-West project that it would lead to the overthrow of the regime. What would happen in the long run if all conditions are met is that Ukraine would drift slowly but surely back into Russia's orbit.
Yes, it definitely put me on defense, and I was super-tired and I don't even live there.
Also understandable.
NGL, I actually agreed with Trump saying "you're so negative! This is a good deal, you should take it (or something similar)!"
Yep.
"Double or nothing! Triple or nothing! Quadruple or nothing!” My noticing that pattern isn't the question; I wonder if EU will decide that game is still worth it when USA walks? Kyiv can reject it all they want, but without someone else funding the war machine, I don't think they can play. As far as Europe is concerned, there's a hard and fast gambling rule all but fools don't observe: don't play on scared money. So I guess we will see.
Thanks for your reply. Our thoughts are aligned, but sometimes I want a reality check, because I'm still learning.
And he is right. This is still a very good deal for Ukraine. With the way things are going on the battlefield right now this would be a major win for Ukraine if the Russians would accept these terms as written.
But instead of recognizing that reality what we're hearing right now from Kiev and European capitals is that this is totally unacceptable and just a capitulation to Putin and that giving up anything at all to the Russians is a red line. They really live in their own delusional world, and that won't change until the US pulls the rug out from under them.
When exactly that will happen is hard to predict because Trump is so erratic and completely changes his mind from one day to the next based on personal whims. But for Russia it doesn't really matter because the current trajectory is entirely in their favor. They have time on their side and the longer this drags the worse Ukraine's battlefield position gets, and this is currently happening at an accelerated, unprecedented pace.
I'm not going to go into all of that right now and i will put off posting about what is happening on the battlefield until the situation stops changing so rapidly that it is hard to even keep up with, but if i was Ukrainian i would have only one word to describe it, and that's: catastrophic.
I think the Europeans are still deep in denial about it, but US military and intelligence understand this and this is why the Trump administration are starting to put serious pressure on Zelensky to get a deal done asap before things get much much worse, which could easily happen in a matter of months.