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Honestly, I think she has a great chance. People didn't not vote for Hillary because she was a woman. It's because she represented the establishment and inspired nobody. People didn't not vote for Harris because she was a woman. It's because she represented the establishment and inspired nobody.
AOC is a candidate who seems to actually represent change. She seems to listen to the desires of the people and follow that. She doesn't just do what the donors demand. She has a chance because she does inspire people to see what could be, not just to repeat what is.
So then why did anyone vote for Biden, who represented the establishment and inspired nobody?
Because it was 2020 during the height of a botched Covid response and a few months after George Floyd. And Biden barely won. If you do the math, it was about 21,500 people across three states that determined the outcome, where them voting for Trump instead of Biden would have been an electoral tie that would have been decided by Pence. That's a technical margin of 0.012% that Trump electorally lost by.
I'm not a political analyst, but my guess would be hope that he would be better. He proved that he wasn't, which allowed Trump to come back because, despite everything, Trump did make promises to change things for regular people. Yes, they were lies, fear mongering, and about attacking a made up enemy, but he at least said something to make people think he would help them.
Because Biden was representing the establishment when they weren't in power and the Republicans were actively blowing it. And he did a lot worse than he should have. That shouldn't have been a squeaker election.