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It's too early to dismiss the Bills, but Josh needs to stop playing like an idiot. That loss is entirely on his decision making.
Don't sleep on the Jets, either. Their defense is top notch, and can keep them in games. Their run game looks impressive too, but the Bills defense often makes other team's run games look good.
And I would never entirely dismiss any team coached by Belichick.
This division is stacked, and whoever comes out of it on top will be tough to beat.