This is nothing to do with any current or recent struggle sessions, or any one struggle session/controversy in particular. This is a much broader issue and I am wondering what it holds in store for any strictly leftist social group online. I would also like to apologize to our non-American/Western users as this is going to be very centered on that.
There was a lot of anxiety about Trump's 2nd term back in 2020. There were people afraid that Trump would be way worse than any Democrat. I didn't personally see it that way, but I (now) empathize a little more with comrades even if their fears don't seem deeply well founded. This made everyone a little more jumpy. Everything seemed a little more urgent.
After 2020, a light depression set in. Bernie lost and all the people who supported that were let down. All the people who knew it was going to be a let down lost their energy as well. There wasn't much of a new thing for everyone to focus on and talk about. Basically the left, as much as it exists, wasn't in the conversation anymore. We were even more relegated to the crank pit. The media project that had been built, that most of us here paid attention to, simply became about dwelling on history, naval gazing about what is to be done, and supporting media careers as praxis. Even the fascist infighting of Jan 6 didn't result in anything and thus "nothing ever happens" mentality is born.
Tensions with Russia and Ukraine, and disastrous Democratic presidency gave us something to focus on and plenty of new enemies to fight. We once again could go after libs and point to how liberals are screwing up everything. We had the invention of new internet guys at which to get mad. Ultimately, the war didn't lead to some new level of consciousness for everyone. It became normal and whatever fresh possibilities existed in Feb of 2022 didn't exist anymore.
Once again we were looking down the barrel of another Trump term. This time the people who felt that Dems would give some respite from fascism had either been pushed past that by Biden's term or they left the site. Jan 6 was a nothing burger, so the fear of competency was lessened. Biden had turned most into sickos who felt Trump was exactly what this country deserved, regardless of how bad he is.
The genocide in Gaza did not help attitudes. This also brought some life back to Hexbear in terms of analysis, news, and fighting genocide denial. I think it's has also had a depressing effect as well. We all see the depravity of Zionists and Western governments every day. We see people being systematically exterminated and everyone waffles, everyone supports it, there is very little political will from anyone in charge to do something. At best it's turned into a market issue where BDS will save us but then all the Zionists rig that game too.
As for the past few months, it's been rough. Once again we face massive economic crisis in the US that liberal economic analysis either can't see or refuses to see. It's not that the jobs market is in a lull, it's that it doesn't exist. The largest sector of the US economy can hire cheap labor at will without having to even look at the domestic labor pool. They're doing massive quarterly layoffs of domestic and foreign sourced labor. Food costs are still high and getting higher. Inflation can only rise at a faster rate (that won't be reported).
It is completely safe for the worst right-wingers to espouse their views in public. They are rewarded for it with government jobs. If anyone harms them, the President sends troops to avenge them. The highest law enforcement body in the land will sue on their behalf. There are no brakes here. All those seemingly petty fears from 2020, the debates about Trump being a real fascist or not, are all valid. Jan 6 2029 could be way more serious than the other one. First as a farce, second as a tragedy, so to speak.
The increased popularity of AI has already changed the internet. AI, whether it's just tulips or the next industrial revolution, is here to stay. The US economy has all but dedicated its entire economy to AI and AI companies.
As others have pointed out, doesn't the internet feel a little off? The discovery of content has been completely dominated by increasingly fine tuned algorithms that make sure you stay on the correct rails. Podcast media is no longer subversive, if it ever was, it is a real tool of the state and is actively being used as such. Podcast popularity has flooded the market with an increasing amount of superfluous content that buries everything and makes it easier for propaganda outlets to hide. Youtube is nothing now. It's almost a Skinner box that doesn't even reward you and produces incomprehensible slop. You can watch short videos that range from roblox rp to nazi propaganda to cooking videos to some 13 year old making guns in his garage within 30 seconds. Everything else, including the best material, is just a gig for people who don't want a "real" job.
Also thanks to AI, it's going to be increasingly hard to understand what's real. The distinction between advertisement and content won't exist. Everything will be monetized and you will not get a cut.
Just as an anecdote, I have also noticed a slow down on the internet. Not in speed, but in the refresh rate of content. Hexbear seems to get fewer posts, existing posts stay in position longer, fewer comments. I have noticed this on reddit too. It simply feels like there are less people engaging in the internet and are instead just passively scrolling, or the algos have reached a point of tuning to where they are completely busted. But since Hexbear's algo doesn't get tuned like reddits, I don't think it's the issue.
To bring this back around, I am not sure we are going to make it to 2029. As things get worse materially and the right wing cracks down, everyone will be more on edge. This is going to lead to more and more infighting. People are going to draw harder lines in the sand and be less forgiving of one another crossing it. Now, none of this will be super obvious and to most people it will seem like everyone is being more principled and that's why it will be accepted. In fact, it will feel good and make us feel like we're cleaning up the community. This will lead to a series of major struggle sessions that will only break down the user base. Some people will get banned and just leave. Some might come back. Users will leave if no action is taken. Users will leave because they disagree with whatever action is taken. The result is less users.
The internet as a whole is not friendly toward sites like Hexbear. We will begin to run the risk of being targeted. All it will take is some fork of grok at Doge Corp to crawl us and flag us. Then some 14 year old chud prodigy will call his dad at the AG's office and get us taken down. Or it'll just be death by attrition from AI agents and reduced engagement. We will be cut off from fresh users from the outside. Federation with other instances will just result in net zero because they're going to be in the same situation. The difference is they might be more friendly to liberals and live a little longer.
I'm not suggesting any action really I just wanted to share my fears. There is no coalition we can form, no concession we can make. It seems inevitable that our future is offline. We made it, what 5 or 6 years now? I don't think we can do it for 5 more. If the site is still up, it's going to be like 20 people at most.
I think that you severely misread my comment, but I'm not sure exactly how
Indeed, and in the very comment you were responding to I said:
But that doesn't mean liberals working to oppose the left in an anticommunist state are important to victory in achieving a socialist society, and in fact they go from being historically progressive (relative to feudalism, for example) to being the main impediment, because they are fundamentally oriented toward advancing bourgeois and petite-bourgeois class interests, which are* in opposition to proletarian class interests in the imperial core, and the proletarian needs to organize as a class-conscious political actor to overcome liberalism and assert its own class interests.
Edit: *in an advanced capitalist state, where the bourgeoisie have already lead all the progressive advancement that they are compelled to by class interests (most social advancement outside of destroying caste and bringing all walks of life into the same workforce is a political football more than anything).
I'd be happy to discuss any of this further if you like, just give me a clear direction on what's useful to talk about.
My main point as an older leftist is that nothing happens in a vacuum. The teachings of Marx have failed to progress society in any meaningful way because young leftists are overconfident in their position. There is zero chance of a revolution with the numbers that currently exist and sitting out elections has let maga rise to power at an alarming rate. Liberals aren't the answer but they have ideas that could demonstrate that socialization of goods and services will be better for the collective. I truly believe that American leftists having no understanding of our actual political climate is leading America to some obscenely dark times. I am not a a liberal but watching ICE raids, and Medicaid cuts does not seem worth it to own the libs. Also, due to us being snobby idiots who are often wrong about modern politics, and recent history, we have lost a giant portion of the youth, realistically for good. So, what is being achieves by not participating?
My response was longer at first, but I decided a lot of it was useless.
I don't understand what this is saying, mainly on account of the "because." Are you saying that the young "leftists" are inadequate as Marxists? I would agree with you there, but I struggle to imagine that that's what you mean since you have rejected every substantively Marxist concept raised so far in this discussion.
Everything I have said was predicated on this assumption because it's quite obvious
This is a trope that you do a couple of times in your comment, and I need to ask why, because it's obviously not the fault of communists (or even socdems) that Kamala lost or that Democrats lose generally. If every vote for the Greens, PSL, etc. went to her, she (and they) still would have lost. What are you arguing and what is your actual evidence? If you're going to point to people who didn't vote, the vast majority of those people are not "the left," though many certainly could be, and also don't represent the position I or anyone on this instance argues for (not that I share most of their opinions, but we mostly agree on this one).
It's the liberals who let maga rise to power at an alarming rate, literally fucking bankrolling their campaigns in some cases (Hilldawg's "pied piper" strategy, employed nationwide in smaller elections too) and capitulating to their policies and party in other cases (as seen in Kamala "the border wall is a good idea" "the only different between Biden and I is that I'll have a Republican in my cabinet" Harris). It's the liberals who completely lack a positive vision of the world because they can only chirp about their rules-based international order and cartoonish means-testing before giving ever more ground to the Republicans. They have been doing this kind of thing for, minimally, 50 years, but some people call themselves progressive and still haven't caught on to it.
Liberals indeed aren't the answer, but you don't seem to be following that logic through, because the vast, vast majority of them do not even reach the level of social democrat, which you are gesturing toward despite that not being what socialism is either. If you're arguing for voting for Mamdani, I support voting for Mamdani! If you personally want to vote for Mayo Pete in 2028, I don't give a shit, do what you want, but don't try to tell me that socialists should be advocating for an austerity-hawking scoundrel who led the charge in overtly slandering M4A with all the crassness and brazen lying of a Republican.
I truly believe that liberal "progressives" and their lesser-evilism has been doing this for, minimally, about 50 years, with not the slightest once of self-reflection on how their biggest recent "win" was making a literal segregationist President who directly defended being a segregationist as late as like 2019 before he simply wasn't asked about it again.
I'm not talking about "owning the libs," I am talking about lesser-evilism having literally zero ability to prevent those things from happening because the Dem establishment does not actually fight it. If you've got some mayoral candidate who is, for example, serious about the "sanctuary city" thing or state legislators who want to make progress on issues of medical care, sure, that's an actual positive policy. If all they can say is "I'm 99% Trump while the other guy is 100% Trump," I again say vote for whoever, I don't care, but don't act like it would be advancing socialism to volunteer for their campaigns or something. They are playing good cop, and like the bad cop, they want the same thing because they work for the same people.
If "us" was your way of saying Democrats (including those who "disavow" like yourself), I'd agree with you, but again I doubt that you meant that because I am obviously not a Democrat. What did you mean?
I am not saying that. No one is saying that. Do you not understand that?
By us, I'm not saying Democrats I am talking about the left. For the first time in a 100 years the youth are more conservative and are leaning towards fascism not communism. That is a huge loss.
Who is "the left"? Are you including liberals?
As a reminder, 100 years ago is 1925. Probably the biggest fascist movement in the US (depending on what you think of now) was in the '30s and much worse in terms of stated ideology than anything that even touches the mainstream today, and there were multiple surges in fascism's popularity in the following decades, e.g. with Skinheads.
At the same time, it's also just a misrepresentation that the youth are especially conservative. The youth are especially radical, but it cuts both ways, and they still tend to be more progressive than their elders on most issues.
It's worth noting that every single historical statement that you've made (where I could figure out exactly what you meant) is provably wrong, from "the left" costing Kamala the election to forgetting about the American Nazi movement. Could it be that there is a deeper problem here that is worth exploring and challenging?
Also, I never expected you to address every point I made, but you basically ignored everything besides an ancillary question.