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It's helpful to remember that a Recession is classically described as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. It might also be helpful to note that 9% of our GDP is bound up in the Tech Sector and five Big Tech companies make up almost all of that share.
We've been flooding the tech sector with money since COVID and steadily, often rapidly, inflating a debt bubble under all of these big firms. The P/E ratios on these companies - particularly Tesla - are incredibly bad.
This, after a long stretch of promising "automation" and "AI will take all your jobs", then watching the tech sector itself hemorage hundreds of thousands of jobs since the start of the year.
To say we're seeing "warning signs" is an understatement. For Silicon Valley, the only thing keeping a textbook recession at bay is the flood of federal money for security spending. And since that's all going to companies that think they can do their jobs without an actual labor force...
The post-2001 Bush Economy was often called the "Jobless Recovery" because so much of our growth was in financial speculation rather than real economic activity.
I'm not looking forward to what the Trump Era Tech Sector repeat will end up like.
All of the AI taking jobs stuff is meaningless in the tech industry. All they're doing is laying people off and making the remaining already-overworked employees pick up the slack. They've done this repeatedly and are nearing the breaking point. Tech workers are exhausted, miserable, and stressed out, and just trying to hang onto their jobs long enough that the hiring market improves and they can quit for, hopefully, something less bad. All the stuff about ping pong tables and bean bag chairs or whatever was always primarily marketing by the companies, and in any event largely disappeared long ago.
But big tech companies never want to go through an employee market like 2021–2022 H1 again, so I believe they're quietly and continually laying off workers in order to manipulate the hiring market while also hoarding a bigger share of revenue as profit.