Russia Has Deployed Its Last Reserve Division To Southern Ukraine. Did A Ukrainian Screw-Up Make That Possible? (www.forbes.com)

submitted 1 year ago by zabadoh@lemmy.ml to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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Harsh headline, but an interesting idea: Russia has redeployed its 76th Guards Air Assault Division to the Zaporizhzhia front to plug the Ukrainian breakthrough in Robotyne.

But this unit was until recently doing the same thing in Bakhmut.

Some indicators say the Ukrainian Eastern offensive near Bakhmut has ebbed in the last 2 weeks, which has theoretically freed up the 76th GAAD to be redeployed to the southern front.

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[-] Styxie@feddit.nl 37 points 1 year ago

This indicates that Ukrainian efforts at attrition warfare have delivered over the summer, and that they're well positioned to start up manoeuvre warfare again.

It's worth saying that these elite Russian forces are about as well-equipped and trained as Ukraine's offensive brigades. There were some fairly well researched reports from last year by the ISW about how these air assault divisions have been getting badly beaten up since the start of the war, and have taken significant losses on multiple occasions against regular Ukrainian troops. Not to write them off completely, but the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of taking on these guys.