this post was submitted on 14 Feb 2025
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I believe this is the issue: if there were a way for Ukraine to genuinely believe that Russia would not attack them again, they might accept certain territorial lossesβin fact, they might have accepted them long ago. But no one believes that a Russia that wins in Donbas would stop there and not feel emboldened to push for more. Only a Russia that perceives this as a painful defeat might refrain from coming back for more.
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based.
I could plausibly see a meaningful defensive agreement working for Ukraine too. I believe we should back Ukraine to the hilt for as long as they want to fight, but if we aren't going to send in troops ourselves then when and how to negotiate is not for us to decide
It would have to be sonthing other than NATO thanks to the current American administration, but I do think that an EU + UK agreement with sufficiently strong language - stronger than NATO's article 5 and the EU's mutual defence article, an actual requirement to actively deploy the military to the front - would be deterrrent enough to for Russia
EU accession would cover it. The mutual defence part is fairly ironclad - "obligation" and "by all the means in their power". Definitely less wishy-washy than article 5 IMO.
edit: Here's the relevant text:
Link to treaty. It's at the bottom.
Poland and the Baltics would be so excited at the prospect of dishing out some historical retribution so I feel like it would be enough to deter Putin.
Fair point regarding the mutual defence clause actually, I had misremembered it as being significantly more vague. I'd be in favour of welcoming Ukraine into the EU, although as a Brit it would provoke a significant degree of envy in me
The carve-out for neutral nations might throw people off ("This shall not prejudice...") but with Sweden and Finland not neutral any more only the Austrians are left and we can manage without the catastrophe relief force they call an army.
Ah c'mon back in neighbour. I really hope you do soon.
edit: And there is some vagueness in there but it's only to cover neutral countries - their obligation would be financial I think.