It hardly matters which distro you choose. I've been using Linux for almost 3 decades. I'd say there are a few categories you might consider.

If you like the older Windows looking UI, look for distros with DE's that have that look. If you don't care about stability, then you might be okay with a distro that has a rolling release model.

Most distros have several DE's that you can install and switch to, though the options are limited for some distros. That doesn't mean you can't do the work to get the DE built and installed yourself. Hardly anybody does that, but the point is it's possible.

I go with a point release and then switch my kernel to update with the mainline and I do that with Mesa drivers as well for gaming. I think it's better than going with a rolling release who's stability is unknown at any given time.

For my work machine I go with the LTS Ubuntu. Then I enable live kernel updates. I'm a software developer and it seems like anything developer related is almost guaranteed to be packaging for Ubuntu. I can just add, for example, postgresql's apt source to my apt source list. This gives me the latest postgresql tools even though I'm on the LTS version that is a couple years old. So, I'm stable with the latest tools and my kernel is updating live so I never have to reboot.

Anyways, all that to say, don't worry too much about the distro you pick. You can generally just make them your own. You probably just want to pick a distro that gets you near what you want. That should save you from having to distro hop.

There aren't many reasons at all to use Ubuntu over Mint, and in fact there are many downsides to Ubuntu these days (package management and installation being the worst). Get a USB drive with at least 4(?) gb of space and make a live install of Mint then give it a whirl. Odds are it will meet your needs without a lot of effort.

tbh if you don't plan on modifying your system much, you shouldn't go with either, an immutable distro is pretty much unbreakable and is rapidly becoming the modern standard for a reason.

Try out bazzite, i highly recommend it.

I prefer mint over ubuntu. Also, I dont know about anyone else, but for me transition from windows to mint was easier than transition to ubuntu or pop os

I'd recommend Mint. Cinnamon is a great DE, and everything works out of the box. It's a Debian-family distro, which means it can install DEB packages. Overall a great experience, and my personal favorite.

Mint is great if you want a Linux experience that works with minimal hassle. It uses the Cinnamon desktop environment that is similar to Windows UI. It also has lots of apps and settings that imitate Windows, so it should be intuitive. Ubuntu is also an easy transition for new Linux users, but not as intuitive as Mint, and it has been getting some critique lately for decisions made by the distro's developer (Canonical). The decisions are likely not going to make much difference in your daily use as a new user, so I wouldn't worry to much about that specific issue because Ubuntu is a great distro for new users as well. In fact, Mint is based off of Ubuntu. Additionally, Ubuntu Server is one of the most popular server builds because of its ease of use. If you are unsure, you can make a Live USB of each and try them out for a few days.

Tip: As a new user, it's possible that you will eventually make a mistake or change to your build that you would like to undo. To undo easily when the time comes, make sure you set up Timeshift when you first install your build. It takes snapshots at whatever regular intervals you would like so that you can revert back to one when the time comes. It has saved me lots of frustration.

i went from windows to mint, having a good time with it. This isn't my first attempt at making the switch, but it is the last.

One of my previous attempts was with Ubuntu, and it looks like it would be easier if I was familiar with mac.