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Fear triumphs over hope as Trump wins the presidency – how did it happen?
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Even worse, it appears that Republicans have also managed to win majorities in the Senate and House. While thin, those majorities are enough that we can expect some of the Republican priorities to start getting passed. My major question for the first six months of 2025 will be, does the filibuster survive? I know many folks on the left wanted to kill it, when Republican Senators were using it to obstruct anything more progressive than not kicking puppies. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, will the left suddenly fall back in love with the filibuster? I suspect so. I also suspect that the MAGA wing of the GOP is going to be keen to kill the filibuster the first time it gets in the way of their project. And I wonder where the less dickish members of the GOP will come down on the issue.
They will kill the filibuster because they don't foresee Dems ever holding power again for some reason. I wonder what that reason could be...
I'm not completely sold on that idea. While I'm sure there are wings of the GOP who will buy into the idea of never losing power again, I also suspect that there will be members of the Senate who are old enough to know from experience that things never quite go to plan. Yes, we could be in for an end to Democracy, that possible. But, if we're there, the filibuster doesn't mean a thing. If our institutions are strong enough to hold up for the next four years, then the filibuster will be as contentious as it always is, when the majority has only a slim hold on power.
The resistance will be eliminated.
He's already said this.
He absolutely will order the arrest or killing of his enemies.
I have little doubt, and I'm fuckkng.glad, the end is actually near.
I am sick of this game.
Oh friend, it aint over till the last drop is bled.
My money is on civil war.
All part of the plan.
There will be blood.
Rivers.
Your institutions WILL NOT SAVE YOU. Hannah Arendt's most important warning.
I like your optimism. I don't share it yet, but I like it.
I don't think that Republicans need to kill the filibuster further. It's already dead for judicial nominations, which they have used to full effect. Also, the map is much more favorable to Democrats in the next two Senate election cycles. The next election, in particular, there are 13 Democratic seats vs. 20 Republican seats up (really 21, counting a special election for Vance's seat, and more vacancies may be coming). That, combined with the standard midterm bounce for the opposition party, makes it very likely that Republicans lose their gains in the Senate next election.
OTOH, if Republicans do keep the Senate in 2026, that is a bad omen for Democrats in general. We may see the Senate kill the filibuster then, out of the belief that it will help Vance win the Presidency in 2028.
(And looking forward, the Presidential election in 2028 will be even more important than this one, because of the 2030 census. The Census is supposed to enumerate all people in the country, regardless of legal status. Trump tried, and failed, to add a citizenship question to the census last time. If Republicans are in charge of the Census, I fully expect them to attempt to apportion Congress based on citizenship status (in spite of the Constitution), which will directly affect states like NY and CA, where Texas and Florida have been bussing all their migrants to. We don't have a permanent minority government in fhe US right now, but if they pull off that Census trick we might as of 2032.)
I'm not sure I agree that this removes the incentive to kill the filibuster. A lot of what the GOP wants to do will require passing legislation. Sure, they can kill a lot of existing legislation via the courts and I also expect "budget reconciliation process" to re-enter the political lexicon in full force again. But, there is going to be stuff they want to do, which will be blocked in Congress, via the filibuster. And I think that will raise the specter of killing the filibuster in some wings of the GOP.
Ya, and this is why I mentioned there being wings of the GOP who understood just how useful the filibuster is.